well today's video was a lot of work to put together so I hope you guys really appreciate this a lot of data we were gonna be looking at today we're talking about is a full-scale global economic collapse coming in 2019 okay there was a video idea on this channel about two years ago about how to know when a recession is coming all right now went into ten different points on how you can actually know if a recession is coming by looking at a lot of different data points around you and kind of judging off those if a real recession is coming it's a shame this video didn't get more views I think got like 19,000 the channel was a baby back then it's a shame it didn't get more views because I think it's actually a really really important video so I want to go through all ten of these points and look at them based upon the data and see where we are at or we are gonna go into a full-scale a global meltdown economically here in 2019 what's gonna happen and I definitely did find some scary things out there guys all right now if you're wondering what the ten points are okay the first one was around what is going on around you like what is going on with your friends your family members what are they saying about their economic situation the second point was is the unemployment rate rising the third point was do job numbers miss estimates quite a bit two to three months in a row the fourth point was around what are revisions doing in regards to the jobs numbers are they going down number five was our half of the public companies missing revenue estimates revenue estimates are very important because that's the total money coming in EPS sometimes you can trick those numbers a bit sometimes you can get some tax benefits here and there sometimes you can buy back shares sometimes EPS you can kind of fluff the numbers a bit right revenue numbers that's just straight up that's just money coming in the door okay number six or companies giving weak guidance number seven do several banks report more loan losses than expected number eight or leisure companies reporting very weak numbers number nine are companies that move stuff around reporting bad guidance think about numbers like UPS FEDEX companies like that all right number ten are monthly auto sales numbers week though pretty much all of these numbers are going to be fact-based I've printed the other than number one that's more opinion-based but pretty much all the other ones are fact-based which I love because I hate it just kind of like people give their their two cents one way or another all the economies you know super strong we have a great 2019 or no we're gonna have a total global you know economic collapse and no one ever goes into the data or goes into the numbers or anything like that and I'm like like let's actually look at these things that's okay actually look at what actually causes a recession and whatnot so this is what I think is important guys a lot of research work actually went into this video today I hope you guys enjoy hit a thumbs up if you do let's give you this guy's so number one of course this is more opinion based because you're asking your friends your family members and whatnot lately like how are things are at their businesses alright if they actually owned businesses me fortunately I know a lot of people that own business actually probably the majority of my friends or family members are entrepreneurs that own their own businesses so I get a lot of data insight from them just kind of you know wondering their perspective my own perspective and whatnot and I can tell you as of right now it's kind of late so so okay nine months ago everybody was feeling great okay I knew a lot of people around me were hitting record months as far as their incomes going things like that in their businesses that were just feeling phenomenal and I can tell you as of right now speaking with friends and family members I'm getting a very mixed picture okay and actually probably more toward the negative side a lot of my friends and family members are just kind of like you know things are pretty weak right now you know things are not strong this is certainly not a record month November certainly not gonna be a record month October wasn't very strong a lot of a lot of friends and family members had their best months kind of back in the spring time and since then they've kind of seen things weakened and weakened a bit so that is definitely a little worrisome when I can just look at you know my friends and family members and whatnot who are business owners and a lot of them just kind of saying you know things are just kind of so-so right now it's a very mixed bag out there alright so that's kind of the number one thing that's a first thing to worry about number two was around the unemployment rate what's kind of going on with the unemployment rate as of right now the unemployment rate is the lowest it's been in around 49 years we're at about three point seven percent right now it's been consistently under four percent now for months and months so as far as the unemployment rate goes there's definitely not a lot of worry there we have a pretty low unemployment right now I think we have more people employed right now than we've ever had in the history of the United States so in a lot of different groups around the United States actually see their lowest unemployment rates they've seen in a long time like anybody I possibly know like friends family members acquaintances of friends and family members like anybody I know who wants a job right now has a job right now if not multiple jobs right now in you know maybe even job offers on top of that I don't know one soul that's a friend a family member and acquaintance that honestly doesn't have a job that is looking for one everybody I know has one for number three and number four this was more around job estimates and what is going on there as far as revisions our numbers negative and as a very now ja like just a past month job smashed estimates with a gain of 250,000 wage gains what's one of the most important things I kind of look at especially with the economy we've been in with wages being very stagnant for a long long time wage gains came in at 3% that's the highest since the recession okay that that beat and what analysts were expecting by about 60,000 revisions we haven't seen any you know super negative revisions out there so as far as the overall jobs outlook if you're looking at unemployment rate if you're looking at wage gains finally getting to be at their highest level since the Great Recession if you're looking at revisions one now everything's pretty positive there overall if you're looking at those data points all right number five this was around the amount of companies are beating or missing revenue estimates and what I have found is a percentage of companies beating revenue estimates is around 61% right now so I would say that's pretty good it is not great it is certainly not great but it is certainly not something where we can look at and then we say oh my gosh this is this is horrible what's going on with public companies right now is horrible this is just this is kind of like okay we're doing all right sixty-one percent of companies that means 39 percent of companies that have reported this past earnings season have reported you know revenue estimates that either met or missed okay so as of right now we're a work world Kay there there's nothing like to scary as of right now but it's certainly not great I've seen times before where 80 plus percent of companies beat their revenue estimates so 61% that's just that's okay all right number six number six was around the amount of companies that reported negative guidance this is one of the most worrisome numbers I've seen okay what we have seen is around seven out of and companies reported negative guidance so far this earning season okay for the upcoming year that is a very that's probably the most worrisome thing I'm gonna show you here today okay this means that companies that are expecting much less and what analysts expect in a lot of times these companies are you know expecting less and this upcoming year than what they had previously expected which means if seven out of ten companies pretty much are doing it there's an overall weakness out there there's an overall lack of confidence from companies out there that makes them put out a lot of numbers that just are much weaker than what was expected out there okay that is not a good sign at all that's not a good sign that's that that type of percentage of companies is expecting things to not be as strong as analysts were expecting or sometimes the internal company was expecting guys so I would just caution a lot of people on that one that's definitely a scary sign out there okay number seven I have not seen a lot around the bank loan losses as of yet okay I'm not seeing a lot by the way bank loan losses why is that something important well I think loan losses are really high then that means you know the people aren't paying you know whatever things they have out there as loans whether it be cars or homes or credit cards or things like that okay no I have seen this Arkansas's Bank shares tanked on loan losses the bank owes EK reported charging off nearly 46 million dollars on two different real estate loans alright but as far as a lot of the big major banks we haven't seen anything as of yet as far as huge loan losses but sometimes loan losses can come when you're actually already in a recession and people start maybe losing their jobs and masses and whatnot and all sudden they can't pay for that home they bought they can't pay the rent or they can't pay their auto you know bill or they can't pay their credit card or things like that so sometimes I'll just say you know loan losses can come sometimes come a little later down the road so I wouldn't say oh because we haven't seen a lot of loan losses you know that doesn't mean they can't come a year from now or something like that so I just you know put that one out there number eight is around leisure company is okay these are company so as far as some leisure companies I like to look at Wynn Resorts as far as their guidance very weak Wynn Resorts a report of very weak guidance they are very cautionary and their conference call I listened to the entire thing I probably might buy back Wynn Resorts at some point in time but I'm not interested as of right now but their guidance was pretty bad Hawaiian Holdings which owns Hawaiian Airlines a Hawaiian airline company there was a kind of a mixed bag there it was kind of decent ish I guess you could say Royal Caribbean their guidance mist okay I love to look at leisure type companies because these type of companies like you don't have to stay at these two places or you don't have to use like you don't have to go to Hawaii unless I don't know you live in Hawaii or something right you don't have to stay at Wynn Resorts like if you do have to come to Las Vegas like you could stay anywhere Wynn Resorts is probably the most expensive place you could possibly stay in the Las Vegas Strip you don't have to stay there okay people stay there because they want to stay there and they have the money to stay there and they have the confidence to stay there right something like World Caribbean cruise liners or something like that like people don't just go on a cruise if they're feeling bad about themselves so Royal Caribbean missing what guidance was expected those are all a little bit worrisome for me out there when I look at it and I say well they're all expecting kind of weak guidance why is the lack of confidence there why the lack of order numbers there and things like that okay number nine is around transportation stocks okay I'm talking about the UPS the FedEx you know a lot of the rail companies and whatnot what have we seen out of them in September FedEx raises 2018 outlook but it also posted an EPS miss and also I say those FedEx numbers were just kind of a mixed bag like they were some parts were good on that some financial message of metrics missed they were kind of okay UPS earnings were pretty good I would say the UPS earnings were pretty good out of the transportation sector they might have had the strongest earnings thor's railroad operators see us X scored an overall beat last week but Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern narrowly missed so as far as transportation as of right now it looks pretty decent okay I would say maybe even it looks pretty good as far as transportation goes right now but that's kind of natural because we still have a pretty strong economy going in the US right now so it's kind of natural for the transportation to be very good also we've seen a lot of companies doing mass orders for a lot of different Chinese products that have kind of come over to the states and just kind of stocking up on some of that stuff before the tariffs potentially go to 25% over in China so we've seen a lot of companies you know doing bigger orders than they usually would have that benefits all these companies that have to move all that stuff around think about UPS or FedEx or the rail companies that move all this inventory around that maybe you know companies have been ordering more of in China you know before the tariffs go to 25% because if you got the money right now as a big company say you're a producer of something in China right you've got the money and you've got the space to store the inventory right and it's a physical good of some kind like why not order as much as possible now get it into the states and just store for now if let's say the tariff on that's that product you order right now is a ten percent tariff and it's about to go to twenty five percent like why not just order a ton of it store it in your warehouse it ends up saving you a lot of money especially if those tariffs you don't end up going to twenty five percent that's where they stay because you're gonna have to start buying goods from China it's gonna be a lot more of an expensive effort for you as a company out there okay number ten was around Auto Sales what's going on with Auto Sales then we'll talk a little bit more about the global economy all right so still Edmonds and Cox Automotive projected US auto industry sales to decline 2.1 percent in 1.9 percent respectively for October that's year-over-year Ford Honda and Nissan recorded sales declines of three point nine percent four point one percent and ten point six percent for Nissan General Motors reported down numbers of eight to nine percent or at least that's based upon projections because GM doesn't break out monthly sales figures Fiat Chrysler Toyota Subaru a Volkswagen and Kia all had some gains there but overall it's still a down year year-over-year of around two percent roughly they're the only gainer was really Tesla as far as a major major gainer there a lot of this is being put on interest rates interest rates on new vehicles have averaged 6.2 percent in October up 1.3 points from a year earlier in marking the highest rate since January 2009 according to Edmunds all right only 3.8 percent of buyers got 0% interest loans down from 7.5% a year earlier all right so as far as I you know auto the auto industry is is in my opinion get it going into quite of a mess okay here's what's going on with the auto industry you have massive corruption going on in the auto industry you have this company that's just disrupting everything right Tesla as far as you know going from ice vehicles to electric and then you know autonomous driving you have a so much disruption there right you have a lot of people who are kind of putting off a vehicle because now we're looking at and they're like oh maybe model Y is coming maybe I just want to wait for the month $35,000 model three to come and then a lot of people have just bought cars over the last few years and like they're kind of like in a situation where they're good on cars right now and then interest rates to go up and up and they get more expensive to buy cars and a lot of people look at and like why do I want to buy a new car right now why not just wait this out maybe interest rates will go down in a few years I can buy a new car maybe you know the $35,000 model 3 can be out I can get on the electric wave and get away from ice vehicles so I think a lot of people are kind of looking at automobile sales right now and they're kind of like why do I want to go out and buy a new car because think about it like like even I will plan on never buying a nice vehicle again honestly never again like this the Alfa Romeo I bought this past year like that's the last I see oh I buy everything in the future will be electric vehicles because I don't want to get stuck with an ice vehicle in five or ten years when pretty much no hunts a nice vehicle and everybody's already on the electric bandwagon that's like holding a flip phone that's like you have you know buying a flip phone in 2008 like you don't want to be the last person to buy a flip phone when everybody's already buying smart phones right so that's kind of my view there and so the automobile industry is kind of a bit of a mess right now that the sales aren't too bad down 2% year over year but it is still weakening in the end okay let's talk about a bit about the global economy right now okay Brazil is an absolute disaster that the Brazilian economy is a disaster right now the murder rate is awful I think something like 62,000 people have been murdered in Brazil in the past year like the numbers are sick out of there I used to complain all the time about Chicago you know the death rate being something around 500 per year and whatnot I can't even imagine 60 mm that's unbelievable okay number two as far as Europe Europe is blah Europe is like what Europe always is pretty much as a whole you know some some some markets are good in Europe some markets are bad it's just kind of like mmm it's it's okay type situation Europe at least as long as I've been paying attention the economy which is pretty much I got in around the great recession time Europe just kind of always been a Bly you know type of economic situation over there and it continues to be this day China is about to get really really scary if no trade deal gets done soon okay the twenty five percent tariffs are coming here at the end of this year and I can just tell you China's gonna get really really scary if nothing happens around that trade deal they rely a lot on the states no trade deal is done I'm just gonna say that does not bode well at all for the Chinese economy and there's gonna be a major shift in the Chinese economy and they're you know Chinese economies they've been trying to move it more to a consumer base for a while now they're gonna need to accelerate that even more if all said a lot of companies from the states often go from using China to another country or maybe bring the production back to the US so if in my opinion China's gotta get a trade deal building something that can you know smooth things out a bit because I don't think it's a good look for the 25 percent tariffs hitting soon as far as the Japanese economy goes another one that's kind of like blah right now it's pretty good over there but it's not great you're gonna look at the GDP numbers coming out of Japan they're alright but they're nothing to blow you away alright number five India you know it all I want to talk about India and obviously it's a massive market something like 1.1 1.2 billion people live in India and as possible India could end up being you know the biggest country out there as far as the amount of people that live there right India is still very early days there so as far as a major global impact as far as the economy goes we can't see that as of yet maybe in a decade decade and a half we're gonna start seeing so you know a big pick up there but as of right now it's still too early days out in India right so if we look at it there's definitely some reasons to be you know happy and there's definitely some reasons to be scared okay there's no doubt about it you're getting a very mixed picture right now we see you know a decent amount of companies doing okay on earnings but we've seen a quite a few companies missing as far as their earnings guidance goes for 2019 so it's kind of a mixed bag there you see unemployment rate very low you see wages pretty strong right now in the states the strongest they've been in probably a decade so that's those are definitely good factors you see transportation kind of pretty strong right now but you're also seeing a lot of weakness out of you know places like Brazil I think China is gonna be in a quite a situation once those 25% tariffs hit if they don't get the trade deal done and you know Europe's just kind of okay right now they went through the whole brexit situation that's still kind of divesting there and how that will shake out over the coming year still remains to be seen so if you're looking at it as a you know a global economic meltdown I don't think we have enough data yet to say yes we're gonna have a global economic meltdown I also don't think we have enough data as of right now to say oh my gosh 2019 is gonna be an amazing year we're all gonna be so happy you're all gonna be making so much money I don't think you honestly have enough data either side to really push for yes it's going to be great oh it's gonna be horrible there's really not because you're getting too much of a mixed picture right now but I would say if you're getting closer to one side or another you're probably getting a little bit closer to an economic downturn of a major way just because if we look at nine months ago six months ago everything was just so so strong and now we're getting in a situation where things have weakened and weakened and we're kind of in that picture where it's like a 50/50 type thing right now flip a coin and we'll see which which side we land on so as of right now there's no way you can tell me that for sure we're going into an economic collapse in 2019 there's really no way you can tell me for sure we're gonna have an amazing year in 2019 the jury is still out well but all these numbers are gonna have to keep being sifted through and keep being looked at as the year goes on the Federal Reserve has got to keep a close eye on this and of course that's their job to keep it a close eye on this but I don't think the Federal Reserve should just go out there and say no matter what we're gonna raise interest rates throughout 2019 I think they should take it as as time goes and see how the overall economy is see how the global economy is and say hey the things you know is still very strong okay braise it another quarter percent or whatever if things are it starts to weaken a bit and things get a little weaker then the Federal Reserve to say you know what we're not gonna raise interest rates too this time around and in three months we'll look at it again maybe we'll raise in three months we'll look at the data I think the Fed should just kind of take a take a breather as far as just looking at the data or in 2019 and kind of judging should we raise and not just say yeah we're gonna raise four times to 2019 without knowing how 2019 will break out guys so I hope you enjoyed this a lot of research kind of went into this today let me know what you guys think down there in that comment section I would love to hear from you guys as always thank you for watching and have a great day


  • Rudyson Estanislao

    Lol you just need lots of money, but still good luck.
    Your courses are not good value because is over priced $999, too bad to someone who wants to get in your courses.

    Feels like takes as much money from them as possible.

  • TheLoyalOfficer

    DOLLAR COLLAPSE 2011! (Nothing happened)  click!  DOLLAR COLLAPSE 2012! (Nothing happened)  click!  DOLLAR COLLAPSE 2013! (Nothing happened) click!   DOLLAR COLLAPSE 2014! (Nothing happened) click!   DOLLAR COLLAPSE 2015! (Nothing happened)  click!  DOLLAR COLLAPSE 2016! click!  (Nothing happened)  DOLLAR COLLAPSE 2017! click!  (Nothing happened)  DOLLAR COLLAPSE 2018! (Nothing happened)  click!

  • Juan Motie


  • xl

    The price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, which measures whether stock-market prices are within a reasonable range, is now higher than it was both in 2008 and at the start of the Great Depression in 1929

  • Norbert Chong

    Stocks down bigly, Brexit, house prices going down in Canada, Australia, stagnated in the UK. French rioting. Venezuela a mess. Car sales down. High street sales down, shops closing, companies collapsing.

  • Ventus Tavistock

    Thanks – very interesting – but I'm a Sustainability Engineering Specialist and I think you're totally wrong about electric vehicles (EVs) making internal combustion engines redundant soon. I think people are beginning to realise that there are a lot of disadvantages, inconveniences and dangerous implications of EVs and they can poison the planet quicker than modern internal combustion engines – hybrids are a much better answer for most situations and most people overall.

  • steve james

    gigantic bubble here in sweden fueled by 1.8 percent interest rates since 2008

    half the country here have giant house loans..soon those idiots will be homeless

    luck for us we used low rates to pay off our wife works in medicine so her job is secure

  • samodelkiin2

    12:19 I wish you would've shed some more light on why Fiat's sales were up double digits, while all the other car companies posted low single digits or were negative

  • First Amendment

    Utube is not where you will know when the collapse occurs—-or even if it never happens. You will know it because you will see it happening.
    No Utube channel can tell you when anything will happen…and they know it.

  • Sin City Bargains

    Blah blah blah…focus on dividend growth. I can't control what the market does, but what I can control is investing in quality companies with growing dividends for the long term.

  • Browning Lui

    The reason y fed raise rate is because the growth is still strong, and inflation rate gotten higher. I don't think it'll crash in 2019. But it's obvious enough that most companies r slowing down.

  • Pray Always

    Nice report, this was good and nice analysis supported by data. BTW, blah isn't bad for the market. The major issue, IMO, that 2018 and 2019 faces is over valuation of the market which occurred in 2016 and 2017, lead by FANG stocks, they still need to go down some more, the valuation of some of the FANG are absolutely ridiculous being pumped up by newby hype sensitive investors. IMO the best thing that could happen to the market is a flat or slightly down 2019, if the market goes up in 2019 then we are in the "big correction" or/and crash territory (on a historical basis that is).

  • Paul J

    What these channels fail to recognize is the Spiritual meaning behind the economic collapse, On the dollar is a pyramid representing the Trinity with the Sun shinning behind it, when the dollar fails the U.S. will make an Image to the Beast (PAPACY) (Revelation 13) in which no man may buy or sell unless they worship the Trinity on SUNDAY (the false Sabbath).

  • Jack Jones

    Alot of research ?? really You’re getting your data from newspaper articles which tells you whats happened , not whats going to happen . Employment is a lagging indicator and the real employment levels are harder to work out then reading the financial review figures . If you had any idea about economics you’d be looking at average household savings and defaults as these are the two best indicators for trouble ahead and I can tell you there is trouble ahead but not because of the rubbish that came out of your mouth .

  • Kevin

    Love the video but i have question for you. What would you do if the market crashes? For example, let say you have a million invested in the stock market and the stock market crash, would you sell the stocks or what would you do? If you sell the stocks and where do you put the money?

  • Emma Claire T

    Watch the US Treasury yield curve.
    Its inversion has been an accurate predictor of every recession for the past 60 years.

  • Rafael Lopez

    I feel like demand is low but the prices are high, people are just not buying as much as they should. I for one feel that this problems have lead to tech compannies becoming unstable all of a sudden.

    Still wages going up, has me optimistic for 2019.

  • WanderLust

    10 year bull, Trump ripping up old alliances (geopolitical risks), Trump corporate tax cut 35% to 21% and tax cut for 1% was like a short term heroin kick for the market (running economy hot), China tariffs, rates hiking (interest on all debt rising: ie – GE ) – in tandum bond yields rising causing rotation out of risky assets such as stocks for safer yielding asset classes: ie bonds, for the first time QT -quantitative tightening – FED shrinking balance sheet instead of pumping up market every month with QE (buying up all the sh*t stocks/mortgage backed securities ^^ – massive liquidity crunch coming) , inflation ticking up, mortgage defaults ticking up and prices dropping, US margin debt spiking, employment bottoming out, CAPE Shiller ratio way too high (1929), euphoria and sentiment at ridiculous levels for an overvalued market, yield curve flattening etc etc Crash seems pretty likely 2019-2020.

  • Gregg Vasko

    You should give this up and become a stand up comedian…..The funniest thing you said was that the unemployment rate was low!!!! Left me in stitches!!!!!! And China is an economic disaster???? when the US is 22 TRILLION in debt was another side splitter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Vector VII

    If the president doesn't realize his tariffs are a bad idea there will be a slowdown. We can't out grow the world forever.

  • Peter Pann

    Italy is in a worse spot than Greece is by a magnitude, the government of Italy factors in that "Europe" will bail them out; The Cypress bank issues shows hoe the ECB is going to deal with this by taking client funds to bail-out the bank. In Italy all banks are in stress. the government is a junk levels. they can't borrow and are looking at getting a fine for not keeping financial austerity. Germany is missing growth, France (number 2) is negative and the UK (a net positive) is leaving. You seem to have missed a big piece of data in your analysis.

  • Dean Backer

    The BRICS nations dumping the dollar and many other following. The BRICS nations almost complete with their own SWIFT system. Most nations repatriating their gold. Many other nation purchasing gold at rates not seen before. The United States is about to lose the reserve currency. This fiat currency system has run its course, typically changes every 40 to 50 years. Think this is bullshit, look for yourself.


    My family members arent in buisness or stuff mostly in government or corporate job what should be my substitute I'm from india and i guess economies are quite different in the other world

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